BD26 1st Round Recap

[Skip Bayless (Bball26 Analyst)]

BD26 1st Round Recap
presented by Marc Stein

A	Good pick + good value
B	Good pick
C	Reach
D	Reach + Bad pick
F	Resign immediately (jk)

1. Memphis Grizzlies- Karl Anthony-Towns | C | Minnesota Timberwolves
A Everyone expected the Grizz to pick KAT, and he came through. Great contract, great player, great future. Can't ask for much more than that.

2. Golden State Warriors- Stephen Curry | PG | Golden State Warriors
A- Curry's stats will take a hit with Durant in town, but he should still be a top 3 player in this league.

3. Dallas Mavericks- James Harden | SG | Houston Rockets
B+ Harden's ceiling is not as high as other's picked around him, but he is remarkably durable and has a chance to grow in D'Antoni's offense.

4. Minnesota Timberwolves- Anthony Davis | PF | New Orleans Pelicans
A+ Davis has a higher ceiling than KAT, but he dropped to 4 because he cannot stay healthy. That being said, this is a great value pick so I am giving it an A+.

5. Milwaukee Bucks- Giannis Antetokounmpo | SG/SF/PF | Milwaukee Bucks
B Giannis is exciting to watch and is a full time PG now so it will be interesting to see if he keeps his multi-positional eligibility. There is some risk here because he has not shown he can average 40 FPG in a season yet.

6. Indiana Pacers- Russell Westbrook | PG | Oklahoma City Thunder
A+ This pick looks even better now that KD is gone. Westbrook averaged 46 FPG last year and could challenge for 50 this year. Get out of his way.

7. Detroit Pistons- Kawhi Leonard | SF | San Antonio Spurs
C This was a reach to me. Kawhi improved on the offensive side of the ball last year, but you have to wonder if he has reached his fantasy ceiling with LMA becoming more comfortable in the offense and Pau Gasol's arrival.

8. Washington Wizards- Demarcus Cousins | C | Sacramento Kings
A- Quite possible the best center in the league, Cousins has continued to grow into a bonafide superstar. As he continues to bang more and more down low, it will be interesting to see if injuries begin to catch up to him.

9. New York Knicks- John Wall | PG | Washington Wizards
A- Wall took a step back in efficiency last year, but he has become one of the more consistent players in the league. He has probably reached his ceiling, but if he can start hitting 3s at a higher % it could put him over the top. For now, this is as good of a pick as the Cousins pick was.

10. Denver Nuggets- Kevin Durant | SF | Oklahoma City Thunder
B+ It's very hard to gauge Durant's fantasy value in Golden State, but I fully expect his stats to come down across the board. It isn't a bad pick at #10, but there is a level of risk here.

11. LA Lakers- Paul George | SF | Indiana Pacers
B Armed with a relatively cheap 3 year contract, PG13 is a good pick at #11. You could argue he's yet to hit his prime and as he continues to improve as a scorer he will continue to be more valuable in fantasy.

12. Toronto Raps- Draymond Green | SF/PF | Golden State Warriors
D+ Green's fantasy value takes one of the biggest hits with the arrival of Kevin Durant. Double doubles will be harder to come by, triple doubles even more so. Will Draymond even get 10 shots a game? Doubtful. Lots of question marks and tough luck for the Raptors because the pick was made before the Durant signing.

13. LA Clippers- Ben Simmons | PF | Philadelphia 76ers
D+ This was too much of a reach for me. You have LBJ, Drummond, Chris Paul still on the board and you go with someone who probably won't ever produce like they do? It's hard to understand besides the contract factor, but this is an easy way to hurt your chances of competing when you're given a top 15 pick.

14. Brooklyn Nets- Andre Drummond | C | Detroit Pistons
A- Drummond took a huge step forward here offensively last year and is still just 22. Again, he's still just 22. I can see him averaging over 20 with 15 rebounds a game as he adds some post moves to his arsenal.

15. Miami Heat- Lebron James | SF | Cleveland Cavaliers
A+ The Heat get one of the steals of the draft at 15 as Lebron should never have fell this far. Despite being in his 30s now, LBJ is still a stud and can carry a team when needed.

16. Boston Celtics- Chris Paul | PG | LA Clippers
A+ Another great pick (even though Yacob traded CP3 for scraps later) at 16. CP3 averaged 41.8 FPG which was good for 5th in the league last year and to get him at 16 is an absolute steal.

17. Cleveland Cavs- Kyrie Irving | PG | Cleveland Cavaliers
C+ If Kyrie can take the next step as a distributor he can move up into the top echelon of fantasy players in this league. He has yet to show the ability to do that, but his nice contract increases his value. He needs to stay healthy.

18. Charlotte Hornets- Brandon Ingram | PF | LA Lakers
D- I have similar reasons for this grade as I do for the Ben Simmons pick, but at least we know Simmons will be given plenty of opportunity to rack up stats in Philly. The Lakers signed Deng and have plenty of other up and coming players to take opportunity away from Ingram. You might as well lock in missing the playoffs for the next couple of years with this wasted first round pick.

19. Houston Rockets- Jimmy Butler | SG | Chicago Bulls
B+ Jimmy B had a "down" year last year but he still averaged 32 FPG. That's valuable for a SG, but will he still keep SG eligibility with Wade in town? That's pretty much what kept me from giving this a "Good Value" grade because a top scoring SG is always an advantage, but losing that hurts his value.

20. Chicago Bulls- Hassan Whiteside | C | Miami Heat
A+ Nice pick, Charles. Whiteside's game is made for this league and with Wade leaving Miami I wouldn't be surprised to see him reach the 40 FPG plateau next year. Picking a guy like this at 20 is unbelievable value.

21. Philadelphia 76ers- Kristaps Porzingis | PF | New York Knicks
B Kristaps had a great rookie year and the Zingo will only get better as he gets more opportunity on offense. I really like this pick and it's a great way to start a team.

22. Sacramento Kings- Blake Griffin | PF | LA Clippers
B+ I have concerns about how Blake's game will age as he loses his athleticism, but right now he is a double double machine that does work in this league. Also, if Blake gets traded his value might be higher elsewhere.

23. Utah Jazz- Rudy Gobert | C | Utah Jazz
B Gobert is going to cash in next year when he's a free agent, but the Jazz get a guy who has yet to reach his full potential here. He could be a Deandre Jordan type of player after he develops, but Deandre was still available here so there were a couple of players I'd pick here before Gobert.

24. Atlanta Hawks- Deandre Jordan | C | LA Clippers
A- Jordan has probably reached his ceiling, but he is good value at #24 with 36 FPG. I'd expect him to put up similar numbers next year, but if Blake gets traded maybe DJ takes a step to 40 FPG. I doubt it as he has shown nothing so far offensively besides dunking over Brandon Knight.

25. Atlanta Hawks- Kyle Lowry | PG | Toronto Raptors
A- Lowry is another solid pick by the Hawks (maybe he should've just picked Jeremy Lin) here as he is similar to DJ as a 35, 36 FPG scorer. He'll need to be resigned next year, but the resigning rule is generous at only .6*FPG.

26. Minnesota Timberwolves- Damian Lillard | PG | Portland Trailblazers
B The contract isn't pretty, but Damian has been both durable and reliable his entire career. I wonder how much better he can become and if he'll ever be in the Steph, Chris Paul category but that might be unfair to expect of him. Right now, he's a solid first round pick.

27. San Antonio Spurs- Ricky Rubio | PG | Minnesota Timberwolves
C Rubio's game is pretty good for this league, but injury concerns and usage concerns in Minnesota knocks this pick down a couple pegs. I'm not sure if Thibs will like Rubio enough to play him 30 MPG with Kris Dunn in town and the continual improvement of KAT, Wiggins, and now Dunn could impact his points and assists. It's a risky pick to start a team with.

28. Oklahoma City Thunder- Paul Millsap | PF | Atlanta Hawks
A- I can't believe Millsap was still available here. With Horford in Boston and Teague to Indiana, Millsap could have a career year in 2016 as he carries the Hawks offensively. The addition of Dwight will help with the spacing on the court and Millsap will easily reach last year's numbers again.

29. Portland Trailblazers- Andrew Wiggins | SF | Minnesota Timberwolves
D Wiggins is a better player in real life than fantasy as he doesn't put up the defensive or playmaking statistics you need to be an elite fantasy player. Rubio will always limit Wiggins's assist opportunities and he isn't really a big rebounder. I think his name value led to him being overdrafted here.

30. Phoenix Suns- Nikola Vucevic | C | Orlando Magic
B- I'm a little worried about Biyombo, but Vucevic (when healthy) is one of the best double double machines in the NBA. He had a down year last year in terms of rebounds so the Suns better be hoping it isn't a product of the injuries he's dealt with over his career and just an anomaly. [/font]

[Golden State Warriors (Caleb)]

Agree with most of these Marc (Landon), thanks for these! Here is where i do disagree.

I gotta defend Trey with the Ben Simmons pick.  As you saw with Towns last year, if you can get a star on a rookie deal they become EXTREMELY valuable.  While obviously it's still early all indications point to Simmons being a star.  He can basically do it all, except shoot and that's the easiest thing to work on.  It's conceivable that in his rookie year he averages around 25-30 all while being 20.  Hes locked up cheap, leaving you a lot more cap down the line to work with.  When you take someone like Simmons you can afford a guy like Beal or Derozan later meanwhile a guy who takes Lebron has to take someone a lot cheaper.  Obvioulsy there is a certain point where you have to spend the money but i can see why Trey would rather have a 20 year old locked up averaging 25-30 with potential for more than a guy like Lebron who is 32 and a free agent averaging 40.  I woulda given this pick a B-B+.

I think Draymond's value stays pretty similar.  Yes, his rebounds may fall a tad, but not by anything drastic.  Dray's game was never built on his scoring, but on his defense.  I think he's gonna get even more space then he did before, with Durant replacing Barnes out on the wing meaning more chances to score and Durant is going convert on his chances a lot more than Harrison did.  He is pretty cheap by standards now and i think his production stays pretty similar.  Would a given Dray pick an A-.

[Chicago Bulls (Charlie)]

Thought these were done by Caleb but I scrolled down and and saw it was someone else, nice job Landon.

[Atlanta Hawks (Trey)]

Landon the Wiggins pick is an F lol. But great work man.

[Deleted]

That is my plan.. I'm going to be bad for couple of years... Lol

[San Antonio Spurs (Chris)]

Jul 17, 2016 14:51:06 GMT -5 Skip Bayless (Bball26 Analyst) said:

23. Utah Jazz- Rudy Gobert | C | Utah Jazz
B Gobert is going to cash in next year when he's a free agent, but the Jazz get a guy who has yet to reach his full potential here. He could be a Deandre Jordan type of player after he develops, but Deandre was still available here so there were a couple of players I'd pick here before Gobert.

[/font][/quote]

As much as it turns my stomach to do so, gotta defend TJ here...  even though I don't think he knew it, Gobert is not a FA next year, he has a $3.1M non-guaranteed contract which TJ can pick up even if the real Jazz go completely insane and don't.  He'll have to get paid the following year, most likely at our very reasonable resign price so still on a "good" deal.  Picking up someone with Gobert's ability/youth/playing time on that kind of contract was an excellent choice, and frankly I thought he should've gone even sooner.  Jordan should have gone sooner as well, you're right about that, but I for one like Gobert>Jordan given the circumstances; plus that shit he pulled with the Mavs was bad form any way you cut it, makes me disrespect him as a person, whereas all reports describe Rudy as being a ridiculously hard-working and good-natured guy, which bodes well for his long-term success.

[Charlotte Hornets (TJ)]

Well I was gonna defend my gobert pick but chris already said everything I was thinking. Thanks man, preesh

[Josh]

Well according to this league's rules, Gobert will be an RFA next year. That's a qualifying offer of $3.1M.

[Grizzlies GM (Royce)]

Jul 18, 2016 16:01:01 GMT -5 Josh said:

Well according to this league's rules, Gobert will be an RFA next year. That's a qualifying offer of $3.1M.

No it's an unguaranteed year of 3.1m which is a team option based on the pm Caleb sent today. Then he hits RFA after

[Josh]

I'm pretty sure I've asked in the chat twice about this and both answers were the same. Qualifying offers just amount to RFA. Also qualifying offers aren't classified as non-guaranteed options in the NBA, but with that new PM I don't know how we're classifying them here.

[Golden State Warriors (Caleb)]

If you go on Spotrac and go by the yearly break down it tells you. Gonest is non guaranteed next year which like Landon said is basically a team option kinda thing. QO are RFA, but if you go to spotrac and use the teams multi year break down it doesn't classify Goberts money as a QO

[New Orleans Pelicans (Alex)]

I'm confused. So gobert basically has a teamoption according to our rules then? and after the team option he ll be a restricted free agent?

[Golden State Warriors (Caleb)]

No.
There are four things that can happen with a player at the end of contract. One of those is a non guaranteed contract. That is what Gobert is. I'm not on my laptop but when I am I will post a screenshot. Jazz can guarantee that contract or let him walk next year. If he guarantees him then he plays out the next season on that contract and becomes a UFA the year after. If he doesn't guarantee him he will become a UFA after this season. The only restricted free agents are ones getting qualifying offers, which are generally first rounders and most all second rounders.

[San Antonio Spurs (Chris)]

There is a discrepancy between the player page and the team multi-year breakdown page on Spotrac; the player page shows him with a QO next year, the team one shows non-guaranteed. I've noticed several players (including Clint Capela) with similar discrepancies, kinda just figured Spotrac would get it straightened out by the time the season starts, but I think we're supposed to be going by the team page for now...

[Charlotte Hornets (TJ)]

Am I allowed to just guarantee him now or is there a time frame for that

[Charlotte Hornets (TJ)]

Jul 18, 2016 18:13:46 GMT -5 San Antonio Spurs (Chris) said:

There is a discrepancy between the player page and the team multi-year breakdown page on Spotrac; the player page shows him with a QO next year, the team one shows non-guaranteed. I've noticed several players (including Clint Capela) with similar discrepancies, kinda just figured Spotrac would get it straightened out by the time the season starts, but I think we're supposed to be going by the team page for now...

And chris is right but the team page is up to date. The players page has alot of contracts off

[Golden State Warriors (Caleb)]

Yup that's why we use team page. You can guarantee him once this upcoming season ends

[Josh]

Gotcha. That should make things a lot better with my team too.

[Grizzlies GM (Royce)]

Jul 18, 2016 22:14:25 GMT -5 Josh said:

Gotcha. That should make things a lot better with my team too.

Rookies have team options it doesn't make a difference for your team (I think)

Check your excel page to see what I'm talking about

[Golden State Warriors (Caleb)]

Landon I haven't checked excel, but for rookies don't even bother putting in team options for them on their rookie deal, always gets picked up. Just put everything until their RFA year

[New Orleans Pelicans (Alex)]

Ok. But can someone explain to me why gobert and noel have different kinds of contracts then? they were drafted in the same year, but one is a restricted free agent after this season (noel) and the other (gobert) has a non-guaranteed contract and afterwards is an unrestricted free agent?

[Golden State Warriors (Caleb)]

As in why? Or how to see the difference? The reason why is idk the teams gave them different contracts most likely because Gobert was a second rounder and Noel was a lottery pick.

[New Orleans Pelicans (Alex)]

Oh my bad. Thought they were both first rounders and that their contracts are fairly standardized.

[Josh]

Gobert was the 27th pick. I think it's because he's an international player. Saric's contract is the same.

Edit: I have no clue now. Luwawu doesn't have the non-guarantee and neither does Papagiannis (though his is actually this year...)

[Golden State Warriors (Caleb)]

Good call. I think that's what it is.

[San Antonio Spurs (Chris)]

www.nba.com/media/CBA101.pdf

CBA states that:
"All rookie contracts signed with first round picks have a term of two guaranteed years with two separate
one-year team options for seasons three and four. If the team wants to exercise the first team option, it must
do so during the period from the day following the end of the player’s first season through the immediately
following October 31. If the team wants to exercise the second team option, it must do so during the period
from the day following the end of the player’s second season through the immediately following October
31."

Also, "First Round Picks. A first round pick will be a Restricted Free Agent (that is, will be subject to a right
of first refusal in favor of his prior team) following the expiration of his Rookie Scale Contract if the
team exercises its third and fourth year option and makes a Qualifying Offer to the player."

And finally, "For first round picks, a Qualifying Offer is an offer of a one year contract that provides for a salary
equal to the player’s fourth year salary, increased by the percentage called for in the player’s applicable
Rookie Salary Scale... Notwithstanding the above rules, any first round pick selected 10-30 in the Draft who meets one of the
“starter criteria” during his fourth season or averages one of the starter criteria over his third and fourth
seasons will receive the same Qualifying Offer amount as the player who was the 9th pick in the Draft
(for purposes of such Qualifying Offer amount, the fourth year salary of the ninth player shall be
deemed to equal 120% of the rookie scale amount applicable to the ninth player)... The “starter criteria” for a season
are: (i) starting 41 Regular Season games, and (ii) 2,000 or more minutes of playing time in a Regular
Season."

These are the only directly applicable clauses that I can find. Given that the number of games started and minutes played by Gobert and Noel were very similar in each players' third season (2015-16), I have absolutely no idea why there is a difference and why Gobert is not simply a RFA. I did not see any additional provisions for international players, but Gobert did play professionally overseas, so maybe there's something in the even finer print somewhere in regards to that which I missed.

Feel free to peruse the CBA yourself, but unless someone knows a sports lawyer or a pro agent who's willing to donate his time, I think we'll just have to take Spotrac's word for it.

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