Buyers be Aware

[The Athletic]

We've all seen just how crazy free agency can get.  And we get it, free agency is exciting. It's a time where you can add players to your roster for what seems like for free. Except it's not really for free.  Taking a look back in just the past two years, we've seen Nerlens Noel go for $25 million to then be matched by the Pacers... Last year i decided it would be a good idea to pay Dion Waiters 16 million a year... Ouch. The Grizzlies signed Miles Plumlee to a $15 million a year deal...The list really goes on and on.. I know letting guys walk for "nothing" sucks, but sometimes it's the way to go.  Luckily this year we are going to outline a couple players who are susceptible to being overpaid this summer in hopes of helping some of you guys.  No chance it works, but hey at least we tried. 


1. Lamarcus Aldridge 
Okay don't get me wrong, Lamarcus had a really good year.  Better than i had ever thought possible at the start of the year.  It is a credit both to Pop and LMA himself for figuring it out.  Obviously Kawhi ghosting the whole organization had a lot to do with it, the offense ran through him, but he was also just good.  Because of this I think people will be throwing 20+ mill at him this off-season.  While I think Lamarcus still has a couple of productive years left, I think he is really at that point in which he is going to fall off pretty soon.  He will be 33 heading into this next season he isn't explosive and while he is still super skilled at 34/35 it's going to be tough for him to produce over 30 Fantasy points per game. Aldridge will surely get over 10 mill this off-season meaning he will need to be signed for 3 years or longer.  Paying Aldridge 20-25 mill in that 3rd and maybe even that second season is really going to be tough.  We're not saying LMA isn't good or that he won't be productive, but be careful with how much you pay this guy this summer. 


2. Lou Williams  
I don't think I've ever met someone that didn't like Lou Will.  The guy had just an unbelievable season.  However, because of the nature of his game I don't think he's worth more than 13/14 mill a year, if that.  He had an awesome season, but the Clippers were somewhat of a shit show, and once Blake left it really was Lou Will's team on offense.  He had the ultimate freedom on offense, and while i'm not saying that he won't have that this coming season, this was the first time in Lou Wil's long career in which he had this much sustained success.  Again not saying he won't have sucess next year I'm just not sure it will be anywhere near the amount he had this past year, as a result of the freedom he has.  I wouldn't be surprised if a team throws close to 20 million at Lou Will and that is without a doubt too much.  Lou Will will def help whatever team he is on and will have some nights in which he goes off, but he's probably not a top 3 piece on a championship team and almost all the contenders right now have no money.  Go after Lou he's a baller, but just be careful you don't base the deal off of last season alone. 


3. Elfrid Payton 
Ah the curious case of Elfrid Payton.  On paper he's put up really decent numbers of the years.  The former lottery pick was traded to Phoenix mid season and again had some decent games.  However, the stats were pretty empty and he really struggles to score the ball.  Phoenix didn't even pick up his option.  A lot of people will see the numbers and think hey this guy is easily worth 10 or so mill a year, but i really don't.  He's headed back home to Nola and cut his hair so you never know, but when negoitating with Elf, don't pay based on his production on the past couple years.  It will undoubtedly go down backing up Jrue.  
 

[San Antonio Spurs (Chris)]

Gotta disagree on both Lou and elfrid... I'm feeling the LMA blurb, though, pretty spot on. The big difference for sweet Lou last year was the change in his role, from that Jamal Crawford "just give us bench scoring and don't fuck up anything else too much" outlook to actually being trusted to run the offense, and surprising everyone with the efficient manner in which he did so. I'll concur that last year is probably his peak, but he shouldn't be written off anymore, either. Elfrid is a guy I've always liked, similar to Rondo in what he does without the shitty attitude and alienation of teammates and everyone else... Especially in a league that's built like this one, you don't need to put up points on the scoreboard to have a huge impact on numbers otherwise, elfrid personifies that, and I'm pretty high on his opportunity taking over for Rondo himself, plus whatever minutes jrue leaves out there because of nagging injuries, which traditionally has been quite a lot.

Really fun read, though, and i wholeheartedly agree with the premise.

[Golden State Warriors (Caleb)]

This is why I love you Chris.. actually I love you for a lot of reason but thanks for reading. I’m not saying Lou is done or even close to that, I’m just saying last year was probably his peak, he’s a score first guy that in general lacks peripheral secondary stats. And so I can see his big name leading to a payday more than a 25 ish FPPG guy should get.

Also don’t think Elf is bad but just don’t think role will be big enough to warrant a contract above even 10 mill. If you’re counting on him for last season stats he’s not gonna put that up is what I was I saying. Who knows though could be wrong.